I have just had the best baseball month of my life- here is how

Iceman · Jul 31, 2006

Just wanted to share since I feel that I owe alot to some people on here.

Goto Choptalks thread and read what i wrote, it sort of sums it up. Another huge day today. I am firm beleiver in letting the market and public cap the games.

Any questions feel free. I have won +35 units this month and have not bet over 1.5 units a game and most were 1 unit.

If anyone knows how to post the thread I posted can you put it on here.

Not trying to sound arrogant or cocky. Just trying to help anyway I can. Hopefully I don't jinx this but i don't care because I know I should bet if I make enough "value' plays.

PublicsMoney · Jul 31, 2006

ICEMANS ADVICE ABOUT BETTING BASEBALL :all kidding aside about a month ago a poster on Fezziksplace.com told me to write down the opening "morning" lines (after they have been hashed out) and bet against games that move over 10%.

Sounds simple but like he said I am on the side of the book and against the public, basically betting against all big line moves.

I am on one of my most amazing runs of all time just betting 1 unit a game I have won over 35 units this month. I am telling you the team that gets steamed is getting beat almost nightly.

I have sinced added totals, runlines and some parlays into the mix and I am telling you this is amazing. Let the public cap and dictate the market and bam be on the side of the book and get value numbers.

Today for example I had:
NY Mets -105
Chicago Cubs +127
LA Angels +140
Cincinatti +115
over 9.5 Ny Mets +104
over 8.5 Houston +116
over 9.5 Toronto +118

not sure how long this will last but I am enjoying the ride. I am telling you the more the so called publice struggles and I think most are struglling, the more I have won. This poster seems to live and die by this "value" theory for bases. He has made a big beleiver out of me

RobertArias · Jul 31, 2006

Hard to tell cause I only see today's plays, so what % of the sides have been DOGS?

Reason I ask is the PUBLIC in general bet the FAVS, so would just make sense to go against them with the DOGS....But with that sys you wait til they have moved it at least 10% correct. I am in, thanks for sharing.

kidslick · Jul 31, 2006

what were the opening and closing lines of these games...

PublicsMoney · Jul 31, 2006

For those of you that dont know what steam is defined as here it is.

Steam - In sports betting steam is when a line starts to move rapidly. Most "steam games" do not necessarily reflect objective circumstances, but are games that a mass of bettors is drawn to for some reason

quantumleap · Jul 31, 2006

I believe someone wrote about this very type of thing in the thread Fishhead started titled something like "Give up one secret of how to make money sports gambling". I wanted to try this but didn't have enough information from the post in that thread.

I laugh whenever I hear someone say "it's the vig that causes people to lose at sports betting". LOL! It's not the vig, it's the linesmakers making a line that the public plays into.

I'm trying something similar in soccer this year. I have noticed how sharp books will cause a total line to be slightly higher or lower than most. When a sharp book has a higher line I take that to mean that they are trying to get bettors away from a total that should go over by offering a higher line. When I can find that scenario I look for books that have the lower line at 20 points less than the sharp books and bet the over on that lower line. That way I'm only paying a little bit for a better line.

Good luck Ice. I have no doubt that you will be successful in this hobby.

Iceman · Jul 31, 2006

Robert Arias said:
Hard to tell cause I only see today's plays, so what % of the sides have been DOGS?

Reason I ask is the PUBLIC in general bet the FAVS, so would just make sense to go against them with the DOGS....But with that sys you wait til they have moved it at least 10% correct. I am in, thanks for sharing.

not sure but it is alot closer to 50-50 than you think. I guess back in the day it was the public was playing alot more fav but not now. Today 3 favs and 1 dog.

Iceman · Jul 31, 2006

kidslick said:
what were the opening and closing lines of these games...

I average out these opening numbers at a few books and come up with my numbers.

On Sunday games I do openers from late nite before because of early games Sunday.

Last Nite openers:
NY Mets -120 (bet at -105)
Chicago Cubs +113 (bet at +127)
LA Anaheim +123 (bet at +140)
Cincinatti +100 (bet at +115)

most steam games come right before game time. I think this theory works better later in year when numbers are sharper, creating more value.

Let me add I don't think this is the be all, end all and this is some surefire way to make money. But I do beleieve that in a very tight sport like baseball, that most everyone knows what the number should be, that if you get good numbers by taking value late, you can't but help to win. Let the public add value to team and put you on the same side as the book.

Enough good bets eventually means $$$.

Texas-Winners · Jul 31, 2006

where do you take your morning line at. why dont you just use opening lines the night before.

Iceman · Jul 31, 2006

Texas-Winners said:
where do you take your morning line at. why dont you just use opening lines the night before.

it's sort of a mix between the night before and early morning. I let the quality over night gamblers hash out any mistakes the linemakers made. Generally speaking they don't move alot if so I average them.

Pinny lines and Cris (reducing 5 cents off to make it a 10 cent line)

Italianole · Jul 31, 2006

I'm very, very reluctant to say anything because I'm insanely superstitious and I will now more than likely go on the worst losing streak of my life, but this month I've gained like 26 units just playing moneylines using a similar strategy that you are using. This last week in the tracker forum was insane for me with a couple of sweeps and one negative day. I think being on the opposite side of the consensus and heavy line movement during the course of a day is more often than not a positive. If I cap a game and the line movement and consensus agree with me I have been passing...

Once again, there is a very high chance that I now lose 50 in a row and fade into oblivion after losing more than any person ever has. I am really stupid...let me kiss my rabbits foot, I suck.

bznofx19 · Jul 31, 2006

PublicsMoney said:
ICEMANS ADVICE ABOUT BETTING BASEBALL :all kidding aside about a month ago a poster on Fezziksplace.com told me to write down the opening "morning" lines (after they have been hashed out) and bet against games that move over 10%.

do you mean games that move over a 'dime' on the ML??? and not 10% movement...

to me...-150 to +100 is a "10% move"

a dime movement on a ML of a -220 game is not as statistically significant as a 10 cent move on a -120 game...

a move of 2.4% on the ML would equiv. as a 10 cent move on an even ML...

just trying to add to this discussion...i feel this is the best way to beat baseball, my method just hasnt been working so far this year...

randolph · Jul 31, 2006

Iceman said:
I average out these opening numbers at a few books and come up with my numbers.

On Sunday games I do openers from late nite before because of early games Sunday.

Last Nite openers:
NY Mets -120 (bet at -105)
Chicago Cubs +113 (bet at +127)
LA Anaheim +123 (bet at +140)
Cincinatti +100 (bet at +115)

most steam games come right before game time. I think this theory works better later in year when numbers are sharper, creating more value.

Let me add I don't think this is the be all, end all and this is some surefire way to make money. But I do beleieve that in a very tight sport like baseball, that most everyone knows what the number should be, that if you get good numbers by taking value late, you can't but help to win. Let the public add value to team and put you on the same side as the book.

Enough good bets eventually means $$$.

Iceman, would you mind if I sent you an email?

Iceman · Jul 31, 2006

Randolph,
go ahead

Iceman · Jul 31, 2006

bznofx19 said:
do you mean games that move over a 'dime' on the ML??? and not 10% movement...

to me...-150 to +100 is a "10% move"

a dime movement on a ML of a -220 game is not as statistically significant as a 10 cent move on a -120 game...

a move of 2.4% on the ML would equiv. as a 10 cent move on an even ML...

just trying to add to this discussion...i feel this is the best way to beat baseball, my method just hasnt been working so far this year...

10% off moneyline. So for instance -120 needs to move 12 cents or 10%.

Now I have the whole moneline conversion chart here and I was making it move 3% on that which is generally 13 cebts but found this way easier.

So a team that is +100, which is 50% needs to move up to 53% or -113 but changed it to 10% off moneyline. Basically "anti" steam.

cosmokram3r · Jul 31, 2006

Hmmm sounds like a good idea, but i still dont really get how that works.... how do u decide on the team to play on? NY Mets went from -120 to -105 so that means the public were against the NY Mets... so u played the mets?

I dont get how you decide to play favs or dogs.. i get the line has to move 10% of what it started at.. but yeah sorry lol confused!

TKE683 · Jul 31, 2006

So Ice, its getting close to a play on the Marlins this morning?

Fishhead · Jul 31, 2006

TKE683 said:
So Ice, its getting close to a play on the Marlins this morning?

????

Hal01 · Jul 31, 2006

Fish,

I think TKE is referring to Florida's line movement from a +107 open to its current +118.

Fading the steam of 10% or more would make this Ice's play (if I'm understanding him correctly).

Hal

Iceman · Jul 31, 2006

sorry guys i just got home but yes the Marlins would be the bet but unfortuantely I missed it.

Thier was steam and it as on Philly so fading mean Florida is the "value" play at +118 or so.